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What Do Suffocation Deaths of Trafficked Latino Migrants Say About Biden's Border Policy?_我的网站

一 |     "Gov. Abbott is right; the Biden policies are directly responsible for encouraging migrants to pay smugglers to bring them across the border illegally, and for enriching the smuggling organizations to the extent that they have expanded their deadly business so much over the last 18 months," says Jessica M Vaughan, director of policy studies at the Center for Immigration Studies based in Washington, DC.,She believes that "until the Biden policies are changed to deter and prevent these mass illegal crossings and to impose consequences on illegal migrants, it’s only going to continue and to get worse.","It’s not possible to curb the illegal migration without policy changes," Vaughan insists.,Following Joe Biden's decision to reverse his predecessor's border policies, the number of illegal entries started to rise. On March 10, 2021, US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) encountered 100,441 persons attempting entry along the southwest border in February 2021, which represented a 28% increase over January 2021, when Biden was sworn in. US immigration experts noted at that time that Biden's campaign vows to impose a deportation moratorium, extend protections for those called "Dreamers" and provide a path to citizenship for about 11 million illegals, invigorated migrant caravans.,Melting Pot: How Biden's Immigration Reform May Backfire on US Economy & His Political Future19 January 2021, 20:10 GMT,The US Customs and Border Protection reported in June 2022 about a staggering 239,416 encounters along the southwest land border in May, which represented a 2% increase compared to April. Of those, 25% involved individuals who had at least one prior encounter in the previous 12 months, the report reads. The flow of illicit narcotics including cocaine, methamphetamines, heroin, fentanyl, and marijuana across the border has also been increasing, according to the CBP.,The unfolding border crisis has long been in the making, according to Dr. Aileen Teague, an immigration expert from the Texas A&M Bush School of Government and Public Service.,"President Biden's current immigration policies are not solely his," she says. "They follow decades of an inability to reach consensus on both sides of the aisle. Biden has been a bit 'wishy washy' on Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP) and telling immigrants to 'not come' soon after entering the White House, but besides a murky rhetoric of reform, many of 'his' policies long predate his presidency.",Border Crisis: Who Wants to Flood the US With Migrants and Why?21 March 2021, 16:26 GMT,What's Behind the Federal Government's Inaction?,Last week, Republican Rep. Andy Biggs described the situation at the US-Mexico border as "overrun," "out of control" and "dangerous". He also predicted more deaths would soon be discovered. Nevertheless, "the federal government has not lifted a finger to help the states cope with this influx," according to Vaughan.,"The reason that the Biden administration has not acted to regain control of the border is because they are not concerned about the harm to American communities that this crisis is causing," she says. "They are isolated from its costs, and they hope to reap political benefits, in the form of support from the special interests who profit from this influx, which include certain big businesses, ethnic advocacy groups, and a few leftist politicians.",Republicans are accusing the Democrats of deliberately loosening border policies and promising to legalize illegals to beef up their electoral base. Immigration reform could become an "electoral bonanza" for the Dems, Politico noted in April 2013. At the same time, a 2013 Pew Research revealed that of the Latino immigrants who are eligible to vote, "many more identify as Democrats than as Republicans – 54% versus 11%.",Meanwhile, many powerful US business lobbies such as the agricultural industry, rely on exploiting cheap and illegal non-citizens for seasonal labor. Out of 11.3 million illegals, eight million have jobs, according to CBS News. The basic rights of these unauthorized workers aren't protected. In addition to that, big business capitalizes on mass immigration to drive wages down and to combat organized labor.,DeSantis Advises Migrants Escorted to Washington DC: 'Do Not Come' to Florida14 April, 17:35 GMT,Local Leaderships Struggle With Illegal Entries,Some Republican-controlled states have tried to tackle the border crisis through a series of local legislative initiatives and border operations.,In particular, the Texas governor and attorney general withstood Biden's executive order signed on day one of his presidency stipulating a 100-day pause on the deportation of illegal immigrants. On March 5, 2021, Gov. Abbott kicked off Operation Lone Star, bringing together the Texas Department of Public Safety and the Texas National Guard to prevent Mexican cartels and other smugglers from moving drugs and people into the state.,"State and local leaders along the border and beyond should be using any and all state authorities to disrupt human smuggling and trafficking pathways using existing laws," says Vaughan. "In addition, they should try to discourage or penalize the NGOs and other entities that contract with the federal government to resettle the migrants, including the child welfare agencies, charter transportation companies and charity assistance groups.",However, the fight to curb the tide of illegal migration could be accompanied with human right abuses, warns Aileen Teague:,"Local leadership in many places supports grassroots initiatives to ensure that outside of politics, immigration policies don't have offshoots that affect human rights," she says. "In the absence of hire level reforms, initiatives of basic human decency are badly needed as are local and mid-level leaders who are willing to share their experiences.",© AFP 2022 / DREW ANGERERWASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 21: U.S. President Joe Biden arrives to speak about Covid-19 vaccines for children, in the Roosevelt Room of the White House on June 21, 2022 in Washington, DC.WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 21: U.S. President Joe Biden arrives to speak about Covid-19 vaccines for children, in the Roosevelt Room of the White House on June 21, 2022 in Washington, DC.© AFP 2022 / DREW ANGERER,Are Migrant Deaths Yet Another Punch to Biden?,The latest gruesome discovery of 51 dead migrants in Texas could deal "another blow to Biden’s presidency and will further tarnish his legacy of incompetence in the minds of voters," according to Vaughan.,A number of Republican politicians have already raised their voices against the Democratic administration's handling of the border issue.,"How many more people have to die before Dems give a da--?" asked Texas Senator Ted Cruz commenting on the matter, as quoted by Fox News.,GOP Rep. Tony Gonzales from Texas criticized US Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas for the suffocation deaths of trafficked migrants:,"Today in San Antonio it was 102 degrees. Imagine being abandoned inside an 18-wheeler left to die - 42 people died today - will @AliMayorkas even mention their names?" Gonzales tweeted.,However, given that Joe Biden and the Dems have a lot on their plate, including disrupted supply chains, growing inflation and looming recession, it's unlikely that the recent tragedy would make the matters any worse, some observers believe. Possibly, the Texan tragedy will be also overshadowed by the nation-wide debate on the Supreme Court's decision to overturn the Roe v. Wade abortion ruling, according to Teague.,"I'm not convinced that Biden's immigration and border security policies will be detrimental to the Democrats at midterms," she presumes.。    10月，新能源汽车界的两大“顶流”——特斯拉和比亚迪，都交出了一份“看似亮眼、实则隐忧”的答卷。                   先来看看那个总能搅动风云的特斯拉。北京时间10月23日美股盘后，特斯拉公布了2025年第三季度财报：                    因为季度交付量（49.7万辆）创历史新高，营收同比上涨12%至281亿美元，超过华尔街预期，也刷新了特斯拉成立以来的最高季度营收纪录；                    但净利润仅为13.7亿美元，同比缩水近四成；归母净利率4.9%，环比上季度的5.3%下降了0.4个百分点。

二 |                    更让市场担忧的是，这份看似不错的成绩单可能难以持续。

三 | 一位关注特斯拉的投资人分析，四季度销量很可能回落——原本被寄予厚望的廉价版Model 2.5项目，在此次财报中没有再提，“基本确认已经取消”。

四 |                    不仅如此，作为特斯拉未来增长故事核心的FSD（完全自动驾驶），其V14版本虽已在北美推出，但付费渗透率依然低迷，该季度确认收入同比下滑；备受瞩目的Optimus机器人，其原型机发布和量产计划也再次被推迟。                   特斯拉如何维持现在近450美元的高位股价，成为市场最大的疑问。                   比亚迪的情况同样微妙。虽然前三季度累计销量326万辆，已完成全年460万辆目标的七成，但9月销量（39.6万辆）罕见地同比缩水了近6个百分点；第二季度归母净利润（63.5亿元）同比下降30%。

五 | 这是比亚迪三年多来首次出现季度利润下滑。                   表面看来，特斯拉与比亚迪都承受着“价格战吞噬利润”的压力；但本质上，两家面临不同的增长困境。

六 |                    特斯拉的难题，是当“未来”的叙事兑现受阻，能靠平价车型“向下”抢到多少市场份额？                    而比亚迪，正铆足了劲，通过腾势、仰望这些高端品牌，以及大刀阔斧的全球化战略“向上”突破。                   一旦特斯拉的“向下”策略探入比亚迪腹地，两大巨头的较量将全面升级。

七 | 届时，如果比亚迪的海外销量继续突破，智驾系统渗透率也达到一定水平，或许将改写它仅被视为一只“汽车股”的现状。特斯拉（市值1.49万亿美元）如今高达约283倍的滚动市盈率，对比比亚迪港股（市值9473亿港元）仅20倍的滚动市盈率——这巨大的估值差距，或许也将被改写。

八 |                    一、特斯拉“向下”：“AI”跳票，用销量换时间                    特斯拉三季度交付49.7万辆，营收281亿美元，其中剔除碳积分和租赁后的核心卖车收入达204亿美元，这些数字都超出了市场预期。但仔细拆解会发现，这份看似不错的成绩单，其实有两大“助攻”的功劳。                             一是美国市场（Q3销量约17万辆）在补贴（高达7500美元的新能源汽车联邦税收抵免政策）退出前的集中抢购，提前“透支”了未来需求。

九 |                    二是9月针对中国市场（Q3销量约17万辆）推出的Model Y L三排座版本，拉动了销量回升。                   而欧洲市场（Q3销量约5万辆）因贸易摩擦和马斯克的政治立场表现平平。                   如果四季度这些“助攻”消失，销量和卖车收入很可能会环比回落。                   更让市场担忧的是，即便凭借这些短期刺激获得了销量，特斯拉的利润仍在大幅下滑：净利润同比下滑37%至13.7亿美元。                   究其原因，问题并非出在核心的卖车业务上——其单车收入（4.18万美元）与上季基本持平，核心卖车毛利率（剔除碳积分和租赁收入）环比回升至15.4%，基本符合市场预期；                    而是出在对“未来”的狂热投入上——该季度，特斯拉的研发费用（16.3亿美元）和资本开支（22.5亿美元）高达38.8亿美元，主要砸向了HW5.0芯片、Robotaxi和Optimus机器人上。资本开支下个季度将继续增加到28.7亿美元，为FSD迭代和Robotaxi商业化做准备。

十 |                    特斯拉近450美元的高位股价，不是光靠卖车就能撑起来的，它还需要AI业务的支撑。                   但Robotaxi还在大规模测试阶段；FSD V14版本因付费渗透率低，确认收入不升反降，同时，在中国、欧洲等关键市场获得运营许可也是一大难题；Optimus又一次跳票，3.0原型机从Q4推到明年Q1，量产从2026年初推到年底。                   烧钱太猛拖累利润，可AI业务短期难以变现，无法支撑公司这么高的估值。于是，我们看到特斯拉开始“向下走”：推出更便宜的车型，用降价走量来支撑估值。                   市场此前普遍期待特斯拉推出“2.5万美元的全新车型”，但它选择了一条更快的路——直接在现有车型上做减配降价。10月上旬，它在美国市场推出了两款“标准版”：Model Y标准版售价不到4万美元（约28万人民币），Model 3标准版不到3.7万美元（约26万人民币）。                   这个版本还未登陆中国市场，但市场已经开始猜测。如果按美国市场11%～13%的降幅来算，国产Model 3、Model Y标准版的起售价可能分别降至20万元、23万元左右。如果这个预测成真，意味着特斯拉将直接进入比亚迪等中国品牌的主战场。                   二、比亚迪“向上”：利润承压，向上、向外破局                    再把目光转向比亚迪。与特斯拉高达280多倍的市盈率相比，比亚迪港股仅20倍的市盈率——代表了资本市场两种不同的定价逻辑：特斯拉被定价在“未来”，比亚迪被定价在“当下”。                   比亚迪一直是“当下”表现最好的新能源车企之一，不过也遇到了新的麻烦。                   先说销量：9月销量39.6万辆，同比下滑了5.5%；2025年前9个月，累计销量约326万辆，同比增长18.6%，相比2024年前9个月32.1%的增速，有所放缓。

十一 | 当然也有亮点：高端品牌方程豹、腾势都在稳步增长。                   再说利润。二季度归母净利润63.5亿元，同比下降30%。这是比亚迪三年多来首次出现季度利润下滑。关键是，卖车毛利率降至18.7%，单车净利约0.5万元，大幅低于市场预期的0.8万元。                   利润下滑背后的深层逻辑是什么？这不仅仅是价格战的问题，更是比亚迪在转型期所必须面对的挑战。                   先来看市场竞争格局的变化。比亚迪的DM 5.0插电混动技术，曾经是行业标杆，让它在插混市场占据超过50%的市场份额。但随着行业技术进步，竞争对手如吉利的雷神电混、长城的Hi4等，都在快速追赶，且在用“更低价格、更高配置、更大空间”的策略，直接对标它的主力车型。                   结果是，比亚迪在全球插混市场的份额依然领先，但市占率由近40%降至28.9%（TrendForce集邦咨询），丢失的份额主要被吉利、问界等品牌瓜分。                             再来看比亚迪的商业模式。它采用的是高度垂直一体化的重资产模式——即自己生产电池、电控、电机等核心零部件。这种模式的核心逻辑是：固定资产折旧成本是固定的，销量越大，分摊到每辆车上的成本就越低，当市占率下滑，单车成本就会上升。                   今年二季度，比亚迪继续加大资本开支，主要用于海外工厂建设和智能化研发，固定资产规模持续扩大。这是为长期发展做准备，但短期内，市占率下滑导致规模效应减弱，导致二季度的单车成本（11.2万元）环比上涨了1万元。                   那比亚迪有没有通过涨价来对冲成本上升呢？答案是：有，通过出海和高端化，将单车价格（13.7万元）环比提高了0.4万元，但涨幅有限，最终单车毛利2.6万元，环比上季度还是下滑了0.6万元。                   比亚迪的应对策略很清晰：一是品牌“向上”，用腾势、仰望这些高端品牌来拉高利润。从数据来看，虽然高端品牌目前占比还不高，但增长趋势明显。                   二是“向外”扩张，2025年上半年海外卖了47万辆，同比涨了1.3倍，欧洲市场更是暴涨3倍，而且海外定价更高，成了新的利润池。                   不过，国内市场也有新的麻烦。2026年开始，购置税减免政策要调整了——纯电续航门槛从43公里提到100公里。这意味着，比亚迪多款主力PHEV车型直接少了5千元到1万元的价格优势。

十二 |                    比亚迪当然也在应对，9月推出的秦PLUS DM-i 128km版本就是为了满足新政策。但换个角度看，这个政策对比亚迪来说，未必全是坏事。                   一方面，提升纯电续航就得用更大的电池，它确实会在短期内压缩利润空间，且这部分成本很难完全转嫁给消费者。                   但另一方面，那些技术积累薄弱的品牌，可能会因为成本上升被淘汰出局，这反而会为比亚迪这样的头部品牌腾出更大的市场空间。                   三、用利润换空间，谁的赢面更大？                    当特斯拉“向下”，比亚迪“向上”，两个看似相反的战略，却正把两家巨头推向同一个战场。                   它们原本各有地盘。特斯拉稳坐20万元以上市场，靠品牌、智能驾驶和科技生态“吃好”；比亚迪则在大众市场，凭借“电比油低”的极致性价比“吃饱”。                   但如果特斯拉把价格打到20万元左右，它就踏入了燃油车转向新能源的“主战场”——而这，正是比亚迪的腹地。比亚迪在这里布下了最密集的产品矩阵，也拥有最坚实的用户基础。

十三 |                    未来两三年，这场攻守战将彻底进入白热化阶段。较量的本质，不只是“谁卖得更多”，实际上是两种估值逻辑的对决。                   两家的商业模式不同，以2022年为例，特斯拉的净利率高达15.4%，比亚迪仅为3.9%。

十四 |                    特斯拉走的是“技术溢价”路线。它用智能驾驶、4680电芯、一体化压铸这些前沿技术，让消费者愿意为“科技感”买单。

十五 | 即使降价，单车利润依然可观。

十六 | 这给了特斯拉一个缓冲地带：用卖车利润支撑AI研发，等待“未来故事”兑现。                   比亚迪则走“规模效应”路线。它凭借垂直一体化和极致的成本控制，把价格压到竞争对手无法跟随的水平，然后用销量规模摊薄成本。

十七 |                    但局面正在变化。到2025年第二季度，特斯拉的净利率已大幅下滑至5.3%，比亚迪则微降至3.2%。

十八 | 差距明显收窄。                   如今，两家都在用“眼前的利润”换取“未来的空间”，问题是：谁的赢面和容错空间更大？                    特斯拉在赌“未来会按时到来”。它的AI业务是“从0到1”的突破——Robotaxi能不能商业化，FSD能不能大规模普及，这些都是质变。如果成功，估值会大幅提升；反之，估值会大幅回调。                   比亚迪在赌“转型能赶上节奏”。它的高端化和全球化是“从1到10”的量变，可以循序渐进，也允许试错调整。

十九 | 即便没有爆发式增长，只要方向正确，持续积累也能见效。但这不代表比亚迪就能高枕无忧——对手不会给它太多时间。

|                    从更大的视角看，两家都在用“当下”换“未来”，也代表着整个新能源汽车行业正在经历的转变：从“高增长、高估值”的上半场，进入“增长放缓、利润承压”的下半场。

|                    特斯拉“向下”，以规模换时间，为AI业务争取验证期。比亚迪“向上”，用利润换未来空间，通过高端化和全球化提升单车利润，摆脱“增收不增利”。

|                    在这场对决中，什么样的企业能活得更好？答案不是能讲出“最好故事”的公司，也不是能做到“最低价格”的公司，而是既能守住当下利润，又能看见未来方向，还能在两者之间找到平衡的公司。                   本文来自微信公众号：定焦One，作者：金玙璠，编辑：魏佳。

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